Since 2022, Europe has focused on one question: how fast can we produce? Instruments such as ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) and the SAFE defence loan facility aim to scale up the output of shells, rockets and missiles. A second question has received far less attention: where will all these munitions be tested?
Two types of firing are at stake. Acceptance firings apply to existing munitions: before delivery, each production lot must be fired to verify that it meets the specifications agreed with the customer. Development firings apply to new types of munitions: they validate each stage of a new design, from early adjustment shots to fully instrumented live firings. Europe’s rearmament is increasing both at once. Higher production rates multiply the number of lots requiring acceptance firings, while new systems such as loitering munitions, long-range rockets and armed drones require development campaigns with long, unobstructed corridors and secure impact zones. As this demand rises, Europe’s test capacity is shrinking.
The causes have been known for many years already:
Natura 2000 protections limit the use of military ranges. Local residents oppose more intensive firing. Wildfire risk leads to firing bans during droughts and heatwaves, sometimes for weeks at a time. High winds invalidate ballistic measurements. Coastal and marshland ranges make it difficult to recover unexploded ordnance.
Industrial users also report long scheduling queues, limited time slots and months of delay before receiving data analysis. Some subcontractors are reluctant to test at centres operated by a competitor. Large specialised centres exist, such as Bofors Test Center in Sweden and Alkantpan in South Africa, but they are expensive and in high demand.
Each of these delays has a cost. A late test campaign means a late delivery, a cost overrun and sometimes a lost export contract. In a high-intensity context, it also means a delay in delivering capability to the armed forces.
Several options could ease the pressure:
Pooling existing ranges. A European network with shared scheduling, common data standards and mutual recognition of results would allow capacity to be used more efficiently. Creating a large shared test centre. It would be located in a remote area with vast homogeneous terrain, available airspace, extreme climates for environmental testing and year-round availability. It would host acceptance, development and complex-system firings, with permanently stored test weapons, modern instrumentation and robotic recovery of unexploded ordnance. Neutral governance would make it open to all European manufacturers. Reducing the number of live firings. Simulation, digital twins and better instrumentation could reduce the number of live firings needed for development, although they will never replace acceptance firings.
Each option carries risks. A site outside the EU would raise questions of export licences, components subject to third-country rules, regional security and dependency on a partner, which is a paradox for a project that serves European strategic autonomy. A site inside Europe would face the same environmental and social constraints as today’s ranges. Shared governance, finally, requires industrial competitors to trust one another.
For METRICS 2027, this case raises several questions: Is test and qualification capacity a blind spot in Europe’s rearmament plans? Should Europe pool its test ranges as it begins to pool procurement? Which criteria (environmental, legal, security, industrial) should guide the choice of new sites? And how can these risks be assessed before infrastructure is built, rather than after?
Stéphane Gaudin, founder of Theatrum Belli.
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